Primera Division (Uruguay) · Fri, Oct 9 · 23:00 · Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool UY
Likeliest: Deportivo Maldonado win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Maldonado37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Liverpool UY32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Maldonado
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Central Español (H)3-0
- Sep 27 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Cerro Largo (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Defensor Sporting (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)2-0
Liverpool UY
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Progreso (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · at Central Español (A)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Racing de Montevideo (H)0-0
- Sep 14 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Boston River (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Maldonado | Liverpool UY |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 4-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.