Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 18 · 20:00 · Deportivo Morón vs Mitre
Likeliest: Deportivo Morón win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Morón57%56%0
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Mitre14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 41% | 38% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Morón
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at Estudiantes de Buenos Aires (A)0-2
- Oct 3 · v All Boys (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Los Andes (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Godoy Cruz (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Racing de Córdoba (A)2-1
Mitre
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Club Atletico Colón (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at San Miguel (A)2-0
- Sep 27 · v San Telmo (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Acassuso (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · v Chaco For Ever (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Morón | Mitre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-1 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.