Primera A (Colombia) · Tue, Oct 20 · 01:05 · Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar FC
Likeliest: Deportivo Pasto win · 52%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Pasto52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Alianza Valledupar FC19%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Pasto
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 4 · v Fortaleza CEIF (H)0-0
- Sep 25 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Once Caldas (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at América de Cali (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Cúcuta Deportivo (A)2-2
Alianza Valledupar FC
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 9 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Deportivo Cali (A)1-3
- Sep 27 · at Jaguares de Córdoba (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)1-4
- Sep 16 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Pasto | Alianza Valledupar FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-4 | 2-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.