Primera A (Colombia) · Tue, Oct 20 · 21:30 · Deportivo Pereira vs Boyacá Chicó FC
Likeliest: Deportivo Pereira win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Pereira38%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Boyacá Chicó FC30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Pereira
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 14 · at Junior Barranquilla (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Deportivo Cali (H)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Cúcuta Deportivo (A)0-4
- Sep 29 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)0-0
Boyacá Chicó FC
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Atlético Nacional (H)1-4
- Oct 11 · v Cúcuta Deportivo (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Deportes Tolima (A)0-0
- Sep 25 · v Deportivo Pasto (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Millonarios (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Pereira | Boyacá Chicó FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-3 | 0-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.