Primera A (Colombia) · Tue, Nov 3 · 20:30 · Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima
Likeliest: Deportes Tolima win · 59%
Likely scores: 1–2 15% · 0–1 15% · 0–0 11%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Pereira14%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Deportes Tolima59%57%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 50% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 43% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 19% | 24% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Pereira
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 30 · v Jaguares de Córdoba (H)1-0
- Oct 25 · at Once Caldas (A)1-1
- Oct 20 · v Boyacá Chicó FC (H)2-0
- Oct 14 · at Junior Barranquilla (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Deportivo Cali (H)0-0
Deportes Tolima
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 26 · v Deportivo Pasto (H)0-1
- Oct 18 · at Rionegro Águilas Doradas (A)1-2
- Oct 11 · at Jaguares de Córdoba (A)2-3
- Oct 8 · at Atlético Nacional (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Boyacá Chicó FC (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Pereira | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.