Primera A (Colombia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 20:30 · Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali
Likeliest: Deportivo Cali win · 54%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 54% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Pereira17%18%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%25%+3
OursMarket
Deportivo Cali54%57%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 43% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 24% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Pereira
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 4 · at Cúcuta Deportivo (A)0-4
- Sep 29 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Rionegro Águilas Doradas (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Atlético Bucaramanga (H)1-3
Deportivo Cali
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)3-1
- Sep 28 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)2-0
- Sep 23 · at Independiente Santa Fe (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Cúcuta Deportivo (H)3-0
- Sep 13 · at Once Caldas (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Pereira | Deportivo Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-3 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.