Copa Argentina (Argentina) · Wed, Sep 9 · 22:00 · Deportivo Riestra vs Banfield
Likeliest: Deportivo Riestra win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 38%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Riestra51%38%+13
OursMarket
Draw30%32%−2
OursMarket
Banfield20%31%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 35% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 28% | 42% | −14 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 69% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 62% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 55% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Riestra
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 4 · at Platense (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Vélez Sarsfield (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Huracán (A)0-0
- Aug 18 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Newell's Old Boys (A)0-2
Banfield
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 5 · at Aldosivi (A)1-3
- Aug 30 · v River Plate (H)2-3
- Aug 23 · at Newell's Old Boys (A)1-2
- Aug 19 · v Ferrocarril Midland (H)2-2
- Aug 14 · at Racing Club (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Riestra | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.