Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 18 · 20:00 · Deportivo Riestra vs Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe
Likeliest: Deportivo Riestra win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Riestra39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 33% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 41% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Riestra
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at San Lorenzo (A)0-1
- Oct 5 · v Central Córdoba (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (A)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Lanús (H)0-3
- Sep 9 · v Banfield (H)1-1
Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Defensa y Justicia (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Boca Juniors (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v CA Independiente (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Talleres (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · v Instituto De Córdoba (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Riestra | Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-7-3 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.