Copa Argentina (Argentina) · Tue, Aug 18 · 20:00 · Deportivo Riestra vs Gimnasia y Esgrima
Likeliest: Deportivo Riestra win · 53%
We make it 45% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Riestra53%28%+25
OursMarket
Draw30%34%−4
OursMarket
Gimnasia y Esgrima18%39%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 29% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 29% | 35% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 61% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 72% | −25 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 66% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 42% | +33 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Riestra
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 15 · at Newell's Old Boys (A)0-2
- Aug 8 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)2-0
- Aug 2 · v Barracas Central (H)0-1
- Jul 29 · at Defensa y Justicia (A)1-2
- Jul 26 · v Boca Juniors (H)3-0
Gimnasia y Esgrima
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 15 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)0-4
- Aug 9 · v Barracas Central (H)2-0
- Aug 2 · at Aldosivi (A)2-1
- Jul 29 · v River Plate (H)1-0
- Jul 24 · at Racing Club (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Riestra | Gimnasia y Esgrima |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.