Liga FUTVE (Venezuela) · Tue, Nov 3 · 23:30 · Deportivo Táchira vs Academia Puerto Cabello
Likeliest: Deportivo Táchira win · 44%
Likely scores: 1–1 15% · 1–0 10% · 0–0 9%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Táchira44%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+2
OursMarket
Academia Puerto Cabello26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Táchira
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 31 · at Academia Puerto Cabello (A)1-0
- Oct 27 · v Monagas (H)2-0
- Oct 24 · at Caracas F.C. (A)2-1
- Oct 17 · at Carabobo (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v Universidad Central (H)4-1
Academia Puerto Cabello
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 31 · v Deportivo Táchira (H)0-1
- Oct 27 · v Caracas F.C. (H)0-1
- Oct 24 · at Monagas (A)2-1
- Oct 18 · v Monagas (H)3-3
- Oct 11 · at Trujillanos FC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Táchira | Academia Puerto Cabello |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-4 | 2-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.