Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 21 · 12:30 · Derby County vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Derby County win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County38%35%+2
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Birmingham City36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 55% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 50% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 16 · at Portsmouth (A)1-0
- Mar 10 · at Millwall (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-1
- Feb 24 · at Hull City (A)2-4
Birmingham City
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Mar 14 · v Sheffield United (H)1-1
- Mar 11 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-1
- Mar 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-3
- Feb 25 · at Millwall (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.