Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 11:30 · Derby County vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County26%29%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Birmingham City45%44%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 39% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 9 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at West Ham United (A)0-3
- Sep 1 · at Portsmouth (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Swansea City (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · v Cardiff City (H)2-2
Birmingham City
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 9 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Wolverhampton (H)2-2
- Sep 1 · v Southampton (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Wrexham (A)2-1
- Aug 25 · v Brentford (H)1-6
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.