Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 28 · 12:30 · Derby County vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Derby County win · 40%
A 35% away win. The market says 27%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County40%44%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers35%27%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 44% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 73% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 62% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Feb 24 · at Hull City (A)2-4
- Feb 21 · at Watford (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · v Swansea City (H)2-0
- Feb 7 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-2
- Jan 30 · at Bristol City (A)5-0
Blackburn Rovers
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Feb 24 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
- Feb 20 · v Preston North End (H)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)3-1
- Feb 7 · at Norwich City (A)0-2
- Feb 3 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.