Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:00 · Derby County vs Cardiff City
Likeliest: Derby County win · 45%
A 32% away win. The market says 25%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County45%48%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Cardiff City32%25%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 48% | +22 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 75% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 66% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 15 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Lincoln City (H)1-2
- May 2 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)3-2
- Apr 21 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
Cardiff City
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 17 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Swindon Town (H)3-2
- May 2 · at Mansfield Town (A)4-5
- Apr 25 · v Northampton Town (H)5-1
- Apr 22 · v Port Vale (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.