Championship (England) · Tue, Mar 11 · 19:45 · Derby County vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Derby County win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Derby County40%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Coventry City36%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Mar 8 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-1
- Mar 1 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
- Feb 22 · v Millwall (H)0-1
- Feb 14 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-4
- Feb 11 · v Oxford United (H)0-0
Coventry City
WinWinWinWinWin
- Mar 8 · v Stoke City (H)3-2
- Mar 1 · at Oxford United (A)3-2
- Feb 22 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Feb 15 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-1
- Feb 11 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-4 | 4-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.