Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 4 · 19:45 · Derby County vs Hull City
Likeliest: Derby County win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Derby County41%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Hull City33%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Nov 1 · at Sheffield United (A)3-1
- Oct 25 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-0
- Oct 21 · v Norwich City (H)1-0
- Oct 18 · at Oxford United (A)0-1
- Oct 4 · v Southampton (H)1-1
Hull City
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Nov 1 · at Norwich City (A)2-0
- Oct 25 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Oct 21 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
- Oct 18 · at Birmingham City (A)3-2
- Oct 4 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.