EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · Derby County vs Lincoln City
Likeliest: Lincoln City win · 47%
A 47% away win. The market says 29%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County27%46%−20
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Lincoln City47%29%+18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 55% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 71% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 54% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 62% | −26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
LossWinLossWinLoss
- May 2 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)3-2
- Apr 21 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Apr 18 · v Oxford United (H)1-0
- Apr 11 · at Southampton (A)1-2
Lincoln City
WinDrawWinWinWin
- May 2 · at Port Vale (A)2-0
- Apr 25 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)4-3
- Apr 21 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Stevenage (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Leyton Orient (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 8-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.