Championship (England) · Thu, Jan 1 · 15:00 · Derby County vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Derby County win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 31%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County38%31%+7
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Middlesbrough35%40%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 51% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 60% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 69% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 43% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Dec 29 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
- Dec 26 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
- Dec 15 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)3-0
- Dec 10 · v Millwall (H)1-1
Middlesbrough
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Dec 29 · v Hull City (H)0-1
- Dec 26 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-0
- Dec 20 · at Bristol City (A)0-2
- Dec 13 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-1
- Dec 9 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.