Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 22 · 12:30 · Derby County vs Millwall
Likeliest: Derby County win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Derby County50%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Millwall24%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 14 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-4
- Feb 11 · v Oxford United (H)0-0
- Feb 8 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · v Sheffield United (H)0-1
- Jan 25 · at Cardiff City (A)1-2
Millwall
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Feb 18 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- Feb 15 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-1
- Feb 12 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)1-5
- Feb 8 · at Leeds United (A)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-7 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.