Championship (England) · Wed, Dec 10 · 19:45 · Derby County vs Millwall
Likeliest: Millwall win · 44%
A 44% away win. The market says 32%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County30%36%−6
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Millwall44%32%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 38% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 68% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 64% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 53% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Dec 6 · v Leicester City (H)1-3
- Nov 29 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-2
- Nov 25 · at Swansea City (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Watford (H)2-3
- Nov 8 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
Millwall
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Dec 6 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Nov 29 · v Southampton (H)3-2
- Nov 26 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-0
- Nov 22 · at Portsmouth (A)1-3
- Nov 8 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.