Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 19:45 · Derby County vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 48%
Likely scores: 1–2 12% · 1–1 12% · 0–1 9%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Norwich City48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 61% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 31 · at Millwall (A)1-4
- Oct 24 · at Sheffield United (A)1-1
- Oct 17 · v Stoke City (H)0-1
- Oct 14 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-4
- Oct 10 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
Norwich City
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 31 · v Watford (H)3-2
- Oct 24 · at Charlton Athletic (A)3-1
- Oct 17 · v Portsmouth (H)0-1
- Oct 14 · v Southampton (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Swansea City (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.