Championship (England) · Tue, Feb 11 · 19:45 · Derby County vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Derby County win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Derby County42%——
OursMarket
Draw30%——
OursMarket
Oxford United28%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Feb 8 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · v Sheffield United (H)0-1
- Jan 25 · at Cardiff City (A)1-2
- Jan 21 · v Sunderland (H)0-1
- Jan 18 · v Watford (H)0-2
Oxford United
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 4 · at Burnley (A)0-1
- Feb 1 · v Bristol City (H)1-1
- Jan 25 · at Stoke City (A)0-0
- Jan 21 · v Luton Town (H)3-2
- Jan 18 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-1-6 | 3-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.