Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 18 · 11:30 · Derby County vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Derby County win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County47%49%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Oxford United27%23%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 47% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 50% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 77% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 68% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 11 · at Southampton (A)1-2
- Apr 6 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Apr 3 · at Coventry City (A)2-3
- Mar 21 · v Birmingham City (H)1-0
- Mar 16 · at Portsmouth (A)1-0
Oxford United
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- Apr 11 · v Watford (H)2-0
- Apr 6 · at Portsmouth (A)2-2
- Apr 3 · v Hull City (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Southampton (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.