Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 20 · 15:00 · Derby County vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Derby County win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 46%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County51%46%+5
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Portsmouth24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 43% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 64% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Dec 15 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)3-0
- Dec 10 · v Millwall (H)1-1
- Dec 6 · v Leicester City (H)1-3
- Nov 29 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-2
- Nov 25 · at Swansea City (A)2-1
Portsmouth
WinLossLossLossWin
- Dec 13 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-1
- Dec 9 · at Swansea City (A)0-1
- Nov 29 · v Bristol City (H)0-1
- Nov 26 · at Sheffield United (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v Millwall (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.