Championship (England) · Sat, May 2 · 11:30 · Derby County vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Derby County win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Sheffield United23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
WinLossWinLossWin
- Apr 25 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)3-2
- Apr 21 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Apr 18 · v Oxford United (H)1-0
- Apr 11 · at Southampton (A)1-2
- Apr 6 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
Sheffield United
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Apr 25 · v Preston North End (H)2-3
- Apr 22 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-3
- Apr 18 · at Watford (A)2-0
- Apr 11 · v Hull City (H)2-1
- Apr 6 · at Bristol City (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.