Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 7 · 15:00 · Derby County vs Sheffield Wednesday
Likeliest: Derby County win · 56%
A 21% away win. The market says 8%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County56%75%−19
OursMarket
Draw23%17%+6
OursMarket
Sheffield Wednesday21%8%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 42% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 92% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 25% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 90% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
LossWinLossLossWin
- Feb 28 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-1
- Feb 24 · at Hull City (A)2-4
- Feb 21 · at Watford (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · v Swansea City (H)2-0
- Feb 7 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-2
Sheffield Wednesday
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 28 · v Southampton (H)1-3
- Feb 25 · at Norwich City (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · at Sheffield United (A)1-2
- Feb 14 · v Millwall (H)1-2
- Feb 8 · at Swansea City (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 0-0-10 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Derby County form·Sheffield Wednesday form·Head-to-head record