Championship (England) · Mon, Apr 6 · 14:00 · Derby County vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Derby County win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County51%50%0
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Stoke City24%24%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 68% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Apr 3 · at Coventry City (A)2-3
- Mar 21 · v Birmingham City (H)1-0
- Mar 16 · at Portsmouth (A)1-0
- Mar 10 · at Millwall (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-1
Stoke City
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Apr 3 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-0
- Mar 20 · at Preston North End (A)1-3
- Mar 14 · v Watford (H)3-1
- Mar 10 · v Ipswich Town (H)3-3
- Mar 7 · at Swansea City (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.