Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Derby County vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 35%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County35%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Stoke City35%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 14 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-4
- Oct 10 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Birmingham City (H)1-2
- Sep 9 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-1
Stoke City
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 13 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-3
- Oct 10 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Sheffield United (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Watford (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · at Cardiff City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.