Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 14 · 15:00 · Derby County vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Derby County win · 41%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County41%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−2
OursMarket
Swansea City32%28%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 42% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 72% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 60% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Feb 7 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-2
- Jan 30 · at Bristol City (A)5-0
- Jan 23 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-1
- Jan 20 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · at Preston North End (A)1-0
Swansea City
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Feb 8 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)4-0
- Jan 31 · at Watford (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · at Hull City (A)1-2
- Jan 20 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-1
- Jan 17 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.