Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 11:30 · Derby County vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Derby County win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 41%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County47%41%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−2
OursMarket
Swansea City26%30%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 45% | +23 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 58% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Aug 22 · v Cardiff City (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Lincoln City (H)1-2
- May 2 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)3-2
Swansea City
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 22 · v Sheffield United (H)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Birmingham City (H)0-1
- May 2 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.