Championship (England) · Sat, Jan 18 · 15:00 · Derby County vs Watford
Likeliest: Derby County win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Derby County46%——
OursMarket
Draw29%——
OursMarket
Watford25%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
LossLoss
- Jan 4 · at Bristol City (A)0-1
- Jan 1 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-4
Watford
LossLossLossDraw
- Jan 14 · at Cardiff City (A)1-1
- Jan 9 · at Fulham (A)1-4
- Jan 4 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Jan 1 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-3