Championship (England) · Sat, Nov 22 · 15:00 · Derby County vs Watford
Likeliest: Derby County win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 38%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County45%38%+6
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
Watford28%32%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 42% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 68% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 62% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 54% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
WinWinWinWinWin
- Nov 8 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Nov 4 · v Hull City (H)2-1
- Nov 1 · at Sheffield United (A)3-1
- Oct 25 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-0
- Oct 21 · v Norwich City (H)1-0
Watford
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Nov 7 · v Bristol City (H)1-1
- Nov 4 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-1
- Nov 1 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-0
- Oct 25 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
- Oct 22 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.