Championship (England) · Fri, Jan 23 · 20:00 · Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: Derby County win · 45%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County45%36%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%31%−7
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion31%33%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 37% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 45% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 64% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 69% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 53% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
WinLossLossWinWin
- Jan 20 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · at Preston North End (A)1-0
- Jan 11 · v Leeds United (H)1-3
- Jan 4 · v Wrexham (H)1-2
- Jan 1 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-0
West Bromwich Albion
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Jan 20 · v Norwich City (H)0-5
- Jan 16 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-3
- Jan 11 · at Swansea City (A)2-2
- Jan 5 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
- Jan 1 · at Swansea City (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Derby County form·West Bromwich Albion form·Head-to-head record