Championship (England) · Wed, Sep 9 · 18:45 · Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: Derby County win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 33%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County45%33%+12
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion30%39%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 61% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 67% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 46% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 5 · at West Ham United (A)0-3
- Sep 1 · at Portsmouth (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Swansea City (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · v Cardiff City (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-2
West Bromwich Albion
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 5 · v Watford (H)1-0
- Sep 2 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-3
- Aug 26 · at Newcastle United (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Burnley (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Derby County | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Derby County form·West Bromwich Albion form·Head-to-head record