Championship (England) · Sun, Jan 4 · 15:00 · Derby County vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Derby County win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 40%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derby County54%40%+14
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−6
OursMarket
Wrexham22%30%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 40% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 70% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 60% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 57% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derby County
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Jan 1 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-0
- Dec 29 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
- Dec 26 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
- Dec 15 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)3-0
Wrexham
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Jan 1 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-0
- Dec 29 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Dec 26 · v Sheffield United (H)5-3
- Dec 19 · at Swansea City (A)1-2
- Dec 13 · v Watford (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Derby County | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.