Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:45 · Derry City vs Dundalk FC
Likeliest: Derry City win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derry City52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Dundalk FC23%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derry City
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 19 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)1-0
- Oct 16 · at Drogheda United (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v Galway United (H)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Waterford FC (A)2-2
- Sep 11 · at Shelbourne (A)1-0
Dundalk FC
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Sligo Rovers (A)1-1
- Oct 2 · v Bohemian FC (H)1-2
- Sep 18 · v Shelbourne (H)2-3
- Sep 14 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)0-4
- Sep 11 · at Waterford FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Derry City | Dundalk FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.