Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:45 · Derry City vs Galway United
Likeliest: Derry City win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derry City52%51%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Galway United23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derry City
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 14 · at Waterford FC (A)2-2
- Sep 11 · at Shelbourne (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)3-3
- Aug 21 · at Bohemian FC (A)3-5
- Aug 7 · v Sligo Rovers (H)2-0
Galway United
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 14 · at Sligo Rovers (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · v Bohemian FC (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · v Shelbourne (H)1-1
- Aug 21 · at Dundalk FC (A)2-1
- Aug 7 · v Drogheda United (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Derry City | Galway United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-3 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.