Premier Division (Ireland) · Mon, Oct 19 · 19:00 · Derry City vs St. Patrick's Athletic
Likeliest: St. Patrick's Athletic win · 43%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Derry City26%30%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
St. Patrick's Athletic43%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Derry City
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 16 · at Drogheda United (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v Galway United (H)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Waterford FC (A)2-2
- Sep 11 · at Shelbourne (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)3-3
St. Patrick's Athletic
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 16 · v Shelbourne (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Sligo Rovers (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Dundalk FC (A)4-0
- Sep 11 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · v Waterford FC (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Derry City | St. Patrick's Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-3 | 4-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.