USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 10 · 23:00 · Detroit City FC vs Rhode Island FC
Likeliest: Detroit City FC win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Detroit City FC38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Rhode Island FC31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Detroit City FC
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Birmingham Legion FC (H)1-0
- Sep 30 · at Brooklyn FC (A)3-1
- Sep 26 · v Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Pittsburgh Riverhounds (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at Sacramento Republic FC (A)0-1
Rhode Island FC
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 3 · at Brooklyn FC (A)3-1
- Sep 30 · v Indy Eleven (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Charleston Battery (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Miami FC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at SC Jacksonville (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Detroit City FC | Rhode Island FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-1 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.