UAE 1st Division (UAE) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Arabi
Likeliest: Dibba Al-Fujairah win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dibba Al-Fujairah41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Al Arabi33%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dibba Al-Fujairah
LossDraw
- Oct 9 · at Al Jazira Al Hamra (A)2-2
- Sep 22 · v Al Ittifaq FC (H)1-3
Al Arabi
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 9 · v Gulf United (H)2-1
- Oct 4 · v Al-Orooba (H)0-2
- Sep 28 · v Al Dhaid SC (H)2-0
- Sep 23 · v Emirates Club (H)3-2
- Apr 18 · at Umm Salal (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Dibba Al-Fujairah | Al Arabi |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 40% |
| Both teams scored | — | 40% |
| Clean sheets | — | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.