Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 · Dijon vs Rodez AF
Likeliest: Dijon win · 45%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dijon45%45%0
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Rodez AF31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dijon
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 16 · at Stade de Reims (A)2-4
- Oct 12 · v Metz (H)4-2
- Sep 18 · at Annecy FC (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Stade Lavallois (H)3-2
- Sep 4 · at US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (A)1-1
Rodez AF
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 19 · v Montpellier (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v Nancy (H)3-4
- Sep 11 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Metz (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Dijon | Rodez AF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.