3rd Division, Group 3 (Norway) · Mon, Oct 12 · 16:00 · Djerv 1919 vs SK Brann II
Likeliest: Djerv 1919 win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Djerv 191955%59%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%18%+4
OursMarket
SK Brann II24%23%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 41% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 82% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 72% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Djerv 1919
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · at Gneist (A)5-0
- Sep 26 · v Sogndal IL II (H)2-1
- Sep 17 · at Stord (A)4-3
- Sep 12 · v Austevoll (H)5-2
- Sep 5 · v Askøy FK (H)3-2
SK Brann II
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 3 · v Varegg (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Askøy FK (A)4-1
- Sep 21 · v Fyllingsdalen (H)7-0
- Sep 14 · at Asane Fotball 2 (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Vard Haugesund (H)4-4
| Last 10 games | Djerv 1919 | SK Brann II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-0 | 3-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.