Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:00 · Djurgården vs IF Elfsborg
Likeliest: Djurgården win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Djurgården60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
IF Elfsborg18%18%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 82% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Djurgården
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 14 · v GAIS (H)2-0
- Sep 10 · at IFK Haninge (A)7-1
- Sep 7 · at Kalmar (A)1-0
- Sep 3 · at Mjällby (A)2-0
- Aug 31 · v Mjällby (H)4-0
IF Elfsborg
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 13 · v Kalmar (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at IF Brommapojkarna (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Degerfors IF (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Göteborg (A)1-1
- Aug 18 · at Västra Frölunda IF (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | Djurgården | IF Elfsborg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.