Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:30 · Djurgården vs Örgryte IS
Likeliest: Djurgården win · 87%
Likely score: 3–1
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Djurgården87%82%+4
OursMarket
Draw8%11%−3
OursMarket
Örgryte IS5%6%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 48% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 94% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 13% | 18% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 92% | 89% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Djurgården
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 16 · at IF Brommapojkarna (A)2-0
- Oct 11 · at Hammarby (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v IF Elfsborg (H)1-2
- Sep 14 · v GAIS (H)2-0
- Sep 10 · at IFK Haninge (A)7-1
Örgryte IS
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · v GAIS (H)4-2
- Oct 11 · at BK Häcken (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v IK Sirius (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Malmö FF (A)1-4
- Sep 6 · v Hammarby (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Djurgården | Örgryte IS |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 1-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.