CONCACAF Nations League · Fri, Oct 2 · 00:00 · Dominican Republic vs Haiti
Likeliest: Haiti win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dominican Republic34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Haiti40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dominican Republic
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 28 · at Trinidad and Tobago (A)2-1
- Sep 25 · v Nicaragua (H)3-2
- Jun 4 · at Panama (A)2-4
- Mar 29 · v Cuba (H)1-1
- Mar 27 · v El Salvador (H)2-2
Haiti
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 27 · v Costa Rica (H)2-0
- Sep 25 · v Trinidad and Tobago (H)3-2
- Jun 24 · at Morocco (A)2-4
- Jun 20 · at Brazil (A)0-3
- Jun 14 · v Scotland (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Dominican Republic | Haiti |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.