League One (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Doncaster Rovers vs Burton Albion
Likeliest: Doncaster Rovers win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Doncaster Rovers57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
Burton Albion19%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Doncaster Rovers
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 6 · v Liverpool U21 (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Peterborough United (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-3
Burton Albion
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 6 · at Grimsby Town (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-3
- Sep 26 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)1-0
- Sep 22 · v Nottingham Forest U21 (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Mansfield Town (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Doncaster Rovers | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.