EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Aug 25 · 18:30 · Doncaster Rovers vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Doncaster Rovers win · 41%
We make it 59% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Doncaster Rovers41%19%+22
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
Middlesbrough33%58%−25
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 58% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 42% | +25 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 81% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 25% | +31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Doncaster Rovers
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Aug 22 · v Barnsley (H)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Mansfield Town (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · at Stockport County (A)1-1
- May 2 · at Peterborough United (A)3-1
- Apr 25 · v Stevenage (H)1-1
Middlesbrough
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 22 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-2
- Aug 15 · v Lincoln City (H)2-1
- Aug 7 · v Wrexham (H)1-0
- May 23 · at Hull City (A)0-1
- May 12 · at Southampton (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Doncaster Rovers | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.