League One (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Doncaster Rovers vs Plymouth Argyle
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 42%
A 42% away win. The market says 34%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Doncaster Rovers35%39%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Plymouth Argyle42%34%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 54% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 66% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 54% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Doncaster Rovers
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 1 · v Notts County (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Stevenage (A)2-2
- Aug 25 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-3
- Aug 22 · v Barnsley (H)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Mansfield Town (A)1-2
Plymouth Argyle
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 1 · at Leicester City (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v Bradford City (H)2-0
- Aug 25 · v Coventry City (H)2-4
- Aug 22 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Stockport County (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Doncaster Rovers | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.