League One (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Doncaster Rovers vs Sheffield Wednesday
Likeliest: Sheffield Wednesday win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Doncaster Rovers34%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Sheffield Wednesday38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Doncaster Rovers
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Burton Albion (H)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Liverpool U21 (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Peterborough United (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)0-1
Sheffield Wednesday
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)5-0
- Oct 10 · at Huddersfield Town (A)2-2
- Oct 6 · v Sunderland U21 (H)2-0
- Sep 22 · at Salford City (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Stockport County (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Doncaster Rovers | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.