League One (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Doncaster Rovers vs Stockport County
Likeliest: Stockport County win · 47%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Doncaster Rovers24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Stockport County47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 38% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Doncaster Rovers
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Burton Albion (H)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Liverpool U21 (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Peterborough United (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)0-1
Stockport County
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Bromley (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Barnsley (H)3-1
- Oct 6 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Peterborough United (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Doncaster Rovers | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.